We will use an ensemble of 14 downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models which use the RCP8.5 ‘business as usual scenario’ and cover a wide range of climate sensitivities. The CMIP5 models were downscaled using HadGEM3-A and the EC-EARTH-HR atmosphere only global climate models, providing us with climate data on a high resolution (approximately 50 km2). This will help capture the variability in climate over complex mountain topography. The high resolution climate data has been bias corrected using a trend preserving statistical bias method that was developed for the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) (Hempel et al., 2013). To explore the response of the MAAT proxy to scenarios where carbon emissions are reduced though mitigation, we will use the CORDEX-South America regional climate model datasets for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 (Solman, 2013). Using the HELIX and CORDEX ensembles allow us to generate a range of future MAAT responses which include uncertainty in both climate change scenarios and climate model sensitivities. This Work Package feeds directly into WP5.
